The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation this week issued new projections for COVID-19 deaths in the United States, anticipating another 200,000 fatalities by March unless mask-wearing increases substantially.
The institute, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, has issued key forecasts of how the virus will impact the nation and the world throughout the pandemic.
In its latest report issued on Thursday, the institute reported that daily cases are increasing at an accelerating rate with deaths also increasing but at a slower rate.
“Given the experience in Europe, we expect that the increase in deaths will soon begin
to match the increase in cases,” the institute’s latest briefing notes.
That’s because the fall/winter surge is evident in nearly all 50 states at this time, the institute reported.
The updated forecast issued this week takes into account evidence from hospital studies showing that the infection-fatality rate has declined 30-percent since April due to improved treatment.
“Despite this, we expect 439,000 cumulative deaths by March 1 and a peak of daily deaths in mid January at 2,200 a day. Although mask use has increased to 67 percent, further increases to 95 percent could save a further 68,000 lives by March 1,” the institute reported.
The projection puts California’s deaths by March 1 at 27,073. Currently, the state has reported more than 18,100 deaths due to the virus.
The institute also estimated that, as of Nov. 9, 12 percent of the people in the United States have been infected with COVID-19. That ranges from 1 percent in Vermont to 24 percent in New Jersey. California’s infection rate is reported as between 7.5 and 9.9 percent.
To see projection charts, click here.
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