I recently heard a major economist mentioning, for the first time, the importance of sustainability and self-sufficiency at the local levels. He was discussing the current crisis and where everything was going. His statement was the localities should do everything they can to maximize their ability to produce the energy, resources and basic necessities for their areas. When asked what he thought the best thing each American could do right now, he replied, “If it’s possible — grow a garden.”

Many of the articles I’ve written locally relate to the issue of increasing self-sufficiency. Many of our local people have jumped on board the organic and locally-grown foodstuff train but there still hasn’t been much discussion on really transferring our priorities in agriculture to insuring that our community has sufficient food to withstand the pressures of significant interruption in just-in-time delivery. Similarly, there has been relatively little discussion about creating a local energy infrastructure and moving toward some measure of self-sufficiency in this critical area.

In my job I see a reasonable cross-section of the counties unemployed or under-employed workers and I can tell you without hesitation that many of these folks are headed for the precipice with no safety net in place. Most of them have been hardworking people, the majority over 45, who are unwilling or unable to move to another locale to pursue employment opportunities. They expect that the government has somehow prepared for this disaster and that they can expect some sort of relief or help. Sorry —there is no help coming. We’re on our own.

I also attended the 2008 Economic and Demographic Profile Series presented by Economist Dr. David Gallo. The forecast is for zero economic growth locally in the next year. Most of our local industry is not benefiting the county, except for workers wages and buying power, due to the indirect of necessary materials, etc. being purchased out of county. This is particularly true of our wine production industry. Our population growth is expected to come from seniors and retired people and is projected at 2.5 percent over the next six years. That’s about four times our current rate.

One of Dr. Gallo’s biggest bombshells came in his revelation that the “multipliers” often discussed in economic industry projections — i.e., dollars spent that actually create additional dollars — are largely a mythological invention. The actual effect of dollars spent in-county rattling around in our local bucket and increasing is actually very small. Chamber of Commerce figures often tout tourism as producing seven additional dollars for every dollar spent. Dr. Gallo states that the actual figure is closer to 50 cents. Even at the national level the top for multipliers in any industry is about 3 percent. At the state level it’s fewer than 2 percent and locally it’s usually 1 percent or less. For very small rural counties it’s unusual to have a greater than a one-to-one ratio of return.

I postulate that this is due to the distances that rural drivers are used to driving. Urban dwellers who visit here are often shocked by the distances we drive daily to work and to obtain necessities. Local people, used to driving such distances, think nothing of driving to Ukiah or Santa Rosa for cheaper goods and products — at least they did before gas hit the ceiling.

If you think of the economy as a bucket — the state and fed monies coming in are being reduced all the time. Industry has stagnated here and there is little forecast of an economic boom locally. Jobs are typically low paying and are increasing difficult to get. Not much flowing in the top of our bucket! And the bottom is leaking like a sieve with both industries and citizens spending much of their money out-of-county.

But wait, you say, I don’t go out of county to shop much. Every time you shop at a chain market or store for any product or necessity, much of your dollar goes out of county to the corporate headquarters or to out-of-town suppliers or vendors. The tourist who comes to town and spends locally will have some of his money remain here — but only if the hotel doesn’t buy all of its supplies out of the area, and if he doesn’t shop at gas stations, retail outlets and chain stores that send most of their money away to corporate headquarters or who also buy their materials and products out of the area.

In those circumstances — very little of each dollar spent actually remains in-county. The only real money that is guaranteed to stay here and benefit our local economy is money that is spent for products or services that originate here.

Dr Gallo’s point is the only way to stop the money from flowing out the bottom of our bucket is to produce more goods and services locally. More raw materials, more energy, more fuel, more food —everything we consume or utilize on a daily basis. The better we accomplish that, the better our local economy will be and the more resistant we will be to external crisis affecting our standard of living.

So what our leaders need to consider is that much of what they have been given to believe about the industries that supposedly hold up our economy is false — and that our priorities and planning should be more about creating infrastructure and opportunity to locally develop sufficient resources to support our citizens than relying on forecasts or economic projections that are always geared toward the rosiest picture to improve someone’s future bottom line.

Dr. Gallo thought that, with a sound and reliable broadband infrastructure here, opportunities for information and entrepreneurial projects for seniors and people with ideas could be realized. Business incubators is the next step — to encourage people with business ideas to take a chance without the risk of under-capitalization by providing reasonably priced infrastructure through a multi-year proving period where their business could prove itself or fail without undue hardship. There are working models for these types of incubators and it's time we started utilizing them in this area.

If industry and economic growth don’t develop, entrepreneurial ideas are the only way to climb out of the hole. Tourism can’t be relied upon because of its reliance on a stable economy that allows people money and time to come out to play — a circumstance that doesn’t look too good for the foreseeable future — and also because of its less than propagandized profitability in terms of the real multiplier number.

So I come back to my continued push for a commitment to the priority of self-sufficiency in all the areas of necessity that concern our citizens. It’s only prudent.

James BlueWolf lives in Nice.

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